Vail Update and Who Has the Snow

January 27, 2025
We know you are still trying to figure out what that large exhale was you heard on the morning of Monday, January 6th. As usual, we are here for you to solve that mystery. It was a stupendously large long sigh of relief coming from those that work in the ski industry or live in ski towns throughout the country. The Christmas and New Year’s holidays fell on successive Wednesdays, and only the scrooge employers didn’t give folks at least one full week off, if not indeed both weeks. With even passable conditions for those two weeks in the northeast and quite acceptable conditions in the west (particularly for the northwest US and western Canada) skiers took to the slopes. It is too early of course to know exactly what the numbers were for those weeks, but early indications are it was a super popular period. We spent the two weeks in Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah and are still scratching our heads over where all those damn people came from. No offense folks but it was nice to wake up on January 6th to peace and quiet!
Quiz time – Which US state has the most ski areas? (Answer below – but you should definitely read everything between here and there before you peak.)
Who has snow? Realistically, the ski season has roughly 125 days in North America (mid December to Mid April). Given that, we are approximately one third of the way through the season, and it is a logical time to analyze snowfall trends and look at what resorts have snow. Also, historically, this period between MLK weekend and the mid February holidays is the least crowded so if you can take time off now to ski…do it! The question is…where?
We put little faith in long range winter forecasts. However, we do find the La Nina/El Nino weather patterns to be increasingly accurate predictors of snowfall. This winter was forecasted to be a La Nina year which typically means more snow in northern sections of North America, particularly the northwest. This pattern did not really set in until late December/early January but we can now see the La Nina pattern playing out.
The resorts reporting the largest bases are in the northern tiers – Mt Baker; Jackson Hole; Alta/Snowbird; Jay Peak; and many resorts in interior British Columbia. Mt. Bohemia (often described as the Mad River Glen of the west and definitely on our hit list), in northern Michigan is reporting record snowfall.
In contrast, things are looking grim in the southwest and California. Telluride is reporting a 37 inch base; Taos shockingly has a 25 inch base having only received 48 inches total; and Heavenly in California is reporting a 46 inch base and has yet to break the century mark for total snowfall.
Great time to do that British Columbia road trip!
Continued Fallout for Vail Resorts – Let’s face it, the 800 lb. gorilla in the ski industry will survive. But meanwhile we cannot help ourselves – we love to see Vail Resorts continue to get kicked while they are down. And we certainly can’t resist continuing to pile on. (On the off chance you missed it, see our article on the Park City strike – Park City Strike.) Oh my, where to start…
- Vail has finally offered a “sincere apology” for the Park City vacation chaos. The apology was accompanied with financial compensation for those willing to stay loyal. Pass holders have been offered a 50% credit per day they skied with a minimum credit of 1/4 the total cost of their pass. Skiers who bought day tickets will receive a credit worth 50% of what they paid. (Interestingly though many days during the holiday period Park City wasn’t even selling day tickets due to the overcrowding situation.) And since it’s Vail there is a catch. All credits can only be applied to money spent on a Vail sponsored pass which has to be of equal or greater value than what the skier bought this year.
- No doubt emboldened by the Park City patrollers, Crested Butte (one of 42 areas owned by Vail) lift mechanics, who unionized in 2023, have threatened a strike.
- Another Vail owned resort, Breckenridge, was hit with a work stoppage when workers held a “sick out” to protest living conditions at the employee provided housing.
- Vail’s stock price has tumbled from $190/share before the strike to $168/share. There are numerous predictions in the financial press as to what the long term affect to Vail’s profits will be once the increased wages the Park City patrollers got snowballs through the other 41 Vail resorts. At least one law firm has claimed they are investigating whether Vail engaged in unlawful business practices in connection with their handling of the strike, but it is not clear whether those claims have ski legs.
- As we reported previously, The New York Times covered the Park City strike extensively. The avalanche of negative press on Vail Resorts has continued with The Wall Street Journal getting into the action. One lead article on January 17th dug deeply into the issues created by Vail’s Epic Pass. See Vail’s Epic Problem.
- Several skiers who spent generously at Park City over the holidays have filed a class action lawsuit related to the strike, and online reports indicate it has attracted many interested skiers.
- And finally we are starting to see some shareholder unrest. Late Apex Partners, an investor whose largest position is in Vail Resorts, released publicly an extensive analysis they had provided to the Vail Resorts board. The report calls for the ouster of senior management, realignment of the board and adjustment to financial metrics including severely cutting it dividend. It has not been publicly disclosed what percentage of Vail Resorts Late Apex holds, but Vail will have to respond in the near future.
We should note however, that there doesn’t seem to be any immediate impact on Vail Resorts as a result of all of the above. Through January 5th, Vail has reported skier visits were essentially flat compared to last year (down 0.3%) while ticket revenue was up 4.5%. Time will tell.
A Win for Public Access – You have heard our rant and rave against the trend towards private skiing (Privatization of the Ski Industry). Homewood Mountain Resort on the shores of Lake Tahoe in California is closed this winter due to struggles getting its master plan approved. Discovery Land Company, owners of the ultra private Yellowstone Club in Montana, is one of the owners of Homewood and had threatened to take Homewood private. As part of the recent approval of Homewood’s master plan, the resort has committed to remaining public and will reopen for the 24/25 winter.
Be Well; Ski Well
Answer – New York State – 52 ski areas!